Omicron variant may make Christmas party infection risk much higher

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A bid of bonzer superspreader events astatine festive celebrations crossed Europe suggests the omicron coronavirus variant dramatically increases the hazard of being infected astatine societal events

Health | Analysis 7 December 2021

By Michael Le Page

Omicron whitethorn dispersed overmuch much easy astatine societal functions than different variants

Should you spell to that festive enactment this twelvemonth if you privation to debar being infected by the coronavirus? Probably not. In summation to the hazard posed by the precocious levels of the delta variant successful galore countries, the omicron variant is present spreading excessively – and it appears susceptible of infecting an astonishingly precocious proportionality of radical astatine societal events.

There are already astatine slightest 4 reports of superspreader events astatine parties crossed Europe wherever a 3rd oregon much of the radical attending person been infected. Omicron hasn’t yet been confirmed successful each cases but is apt to blame.

“The precise precocious proportionality of radical infected astatine these events, taken unneurotic with the precise accelerated summation successful cases successful South Africa, constituent to a variant with perchance considerably stronger abilities to infect,” says epidemiologist Gunhild Alvik Nyborg of the Covid Action Group.

One of the events was a enactment astatine a edifice successful Oslo, Norway. Around 70 of the 120 radical who attended the enactment were infected, arsenic were different 50 radical astatine the restaurant. Omicron has been confirmed by sequencing successful 13 cases truthful far.

In Denmark, 53 of 150 radical who went to a Christmas luncheon successful Viborg person been confirmed to beryllium infected with omicron.

In Spain, 68 medics astatine the University Regional Hospital successful Malaga person tested affirmative aft going to a Christmas enactment astatine which 173 radical were contiguous altogether. It isn’t yet wide if immoderate of the 68 person omicron.

Evading immunity

In the UK, Tim Spector astatine King’s College London says he has been told of a 60th day enactment astatine which 14 of 18 radical were infected with omicron according to PCR tests. All the guests were vaccinated and are said to person tested antagonistic connected lateral travel tests the time before.

“It decidedly demonstrates a precise precocious secondary onslaught rate,” says Tom Wenseleers astatine the Catholic University of Leuven (KUL) successful Belgium.

Delta is much infectious than the archetypal microorganism identified successful Wuhan, but its dispersed is constricted by the information that astir radical present person immunity to it either from anterior corruption oregon vaccination. Omicron appears to beryllium some much infectious than delta and overmuch amended astatine evading anterior immunity, says Wenseleers.

We person seen superspreader events with different variants. In May 2020, for instance, astatine slightest half of the 61 people who attended a choir signifier successful Skagit County, Washington, became infected.

But to person truthful galore events of this benignant truthful soon aft omicron reached Europe suggests the hazard is higher. “This looks similar it is successful a antithetic league,” says Nyborg.

She speculates that radical tin beryllium infected by a smaller dose of omicron, expanding the likelihood of airborne spread. “Only a fewer viral particles lingering successful the aerial apt present poses a larger menace than for earlier variants,” says Nyborg.

People should beryllium avoiding these kinds of events arsenic omicron spreads, says Spector. However, the hazard of being infected by omicron besides depends connected the likelihood of idiosyncratic with omicron being astatine a party, and that is debased successful astir countries, for now.

“Hopefully this week the risks are inactive low,” says Spector. The hazard mightiness besides beryllium little successful theatres oregon concerts if radical deterioration masks and determination is bully ventilation, says Nyborg.

Fear of oxygen shortages

However, delta variant infections are presently astatine precocious levels successful galore countries, including the UK, wherever 469 radical successful each 100,000 person had a affirmative PCR trial successful the past 7 days.

The large chartless remains whether omicron is much oregon little apt than delta to origin terrible disease. So far, each those infected astatine the parties are said to person mild cases, but it is excessively soon to beryllium definite this volition stay true.

People who go severely sick with covid-19 mostly bash truthful lone astir a week aft symptoms archetypal develop. In addition, astir of those infected were young and truthful astatine little risk.

However, attending parties isn’t conscionable astir the hazard to you arsenic an individual. If you go infected and infect others, you could lend to a monolithic surge successful cases that could overwhelm hospitals adjacent if omicron is little terrible than delta.

“We hazard seeing a precise ample proportionality of the world’s colonisation infected astatine the aforesaid time, starring to shortages of oxygen,” says Nyborg.

“I privation specified events to beryllium allowed arsenic overmuch arsenic anyone else,” she says. “But from a technological constituent of view, this is truly precocious risk.”